Hi,
I made a crushing realization while scrolling through competition footage last week.
I've been spending months drilling guillotine chokes from my closed guard. Lots of repetitions. Lots of clean setups. I look smooth when I execute it. My teammates respect the technique.
But here's the brutal truth: Guillotines have a success rate of maybe 9% in competition.
Meanwhile, a newer blue belt in my gym who focuses almost entirely on rear naked chokes is finishing at a 45% success rate. He's landing submissions so frequently that rolling with him feels impossible.
The difference? He's not training smarter. He's training on what actually works.
That moment made me dive deep into the data. I analyzed thousands of submissions across IBJJF Worlds, ADCC, and UFC. And the numbers don't lie—some techniques are objectively better investments of your training time than others.
So I created this: 17 Most Effective BJJ Submissions: Statistics & Success Rates
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Here's what the data actually reveals:
The Submission Hierarchy (By Success Rate)
Bow and Arrow Choke: 89% success
If you get back control and set this gi choke, you're finishing. Period. This is the highest-percentage submission in all of jiu-jitsu.Cross Collar Choke: 75.76% success
Second-highest percentage. Once you're positioned for this collar choke, your opponent is tapping or going out.Rear Naked Choke: 42% success
45% of ALL IBJJF World Championship submissions are rear naked chokes. It's the king for a reason.Armbar: 49.64% success
The most versatile technique. Works from every position. This is why white belts learn it first.Triangle Choke: 38% success
Your guard player's best friend. Reliable, available, effective.
Meanwhile... The Low Performers
Guillotine Choke: 9.52% success ← Yeah, that thing you drill constantly
Toe Hold: 10.67% success
Omoplata: 12.12% success
These aren't useless techniques. But if you're spending 30% of your submission practice on guillotines while spending 5% on rear naked chokes, you're training backwards.
Here's What's Wild (And Useful)
The data reveals shocking gi vs no-gi differences:
Collar chokes: 75% success in gi, nearly 0% in no-gi (no collar to grip)
Heel hooks: 20% overall but 34.85% when you specifically use the inside variation
Rear naked choke: 45% at IBJJF Worlds, but only 9% in pure no-gi competitions where back control is harder to maintain
Your training should match your grappling format.
The Real Game-Changer?
Most practitioners don't realize that success rates improve dramatically with skill level.
White belts finish armbars at 55%. Black belts finish at 75%. Same technique. Different execution.
This means:
Master the high-percentage techniques first (RNC, armbar, cross collar)
Your technique quality matters more than variety
A small change in positioning can take a submission from 20% to 70% success rate
What I Covered in the Full Guide
All 17 submissions ranked by success rate
Why your guillotine isn't working (and when it actually does)
Detailed execution breakdown for every high-percentage technique
Gi vs no-gi success rates (huge differences)
How skill level impacts finishing percentages
A complete comparison table
Data from 7,567+ elite-level submissions
You can read the full guide here: 👉 17 Most Effective BJJ Submissions (With Statistics)
My Honest Take
Stop guessing which submissions deserve your training time.
The data is clear: rear naked chokes, armbars, cross collar chokes, and triangles will generate the majority of your submissions. Master these thoroughly before spinning your wheels on low-percentage techniques.
This doesn't mean ignore guillotines or heel hooks. But it means understanding where they fit in your training progression—probably not as your primary focus if you're under purple belt.
White belts especially: the submissions listed in this guide are ranked by what actually works. Train that list in order, and you'll finish way more submissions than practitioners who learn random techniques.
The difference between struggling for years and accelerating your submission game? Train on what the elite actually use.
Talk soon,
Ben — The Grappler's Toolkit
P.S. Want to level up your technique too? BJJ Fanatics has some of the best instructionals online. Definitely worth checking out.